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3-Pointer
Point 1: NHL Lockout players, Fans lockout NHL If a tree falls in the forest, and no one is there to hear it, does it really make a sound? That is the question Gary Bettman should be asking himself right now. The NHL season should have been in full...
Hockey Rules in Real Life
"I went to the fights the other night...and a hockey game broke out."
--Rodney Dangerfield.
Every hockey fan has heard of Todd Bertuzzi. Bertuzzi plays for the Vancouver Canucks. Make that "fights" for the Vancouver Canucks. Make that...
The 7 Steps to Huge Pitching Velocity Gains
Now we all know that pitchers can get hitters out without throwing the ball with Nolan Ryan type speed.
But why are most of us so obsessed with throwing the ball with obscene velocity?
In visiting with good friend and Minor League Pitching...
The Base Hit
The Base Hit © William A. Patsis 2004 Sometimes there is that rare moment that causes one to reflect on those matters that are deemed important and deflect those that are not. It is a very humbling experience but a nice feeling nevertheless. I had...
Who Is Our Daddy?
Who Is Our Daddy? - George Steinbrenner, that's who. Thank goodness the Yankees have him. Big Daddy, George Steinbrenner, is a Yankee fan's delight. As a Yankee fan I love that so many other fans hate what George has done and continues to do. He...
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"The Concept of Value in Sports Betting!"
In sports betting you need to make sure that your bets (and trades) are good value in order to make a profit. If you do not do this you will still win bets but profits may be harder to achieve.
Let me explain this last statement. I actually lose more bets than I win - but the prices or odds at which I bet compensate for the losing plays.
If you bet all season long on the NY Yankees (US Baseball) or Arsenal FC (English Premiership) - to win each game - you will probably end up with a fairly good winning strike rate - but it is unlikely that you will make any money. The odds will be 'short' and you may do better to try and predict when these teams might falter - and bet against them at the over inflated prices being offered on the opposing teams. These opposing teams will most likely offer the value - as they are not the popular betting choice.
When we flip a coin, we know that the true chance of it turning up heads or tails is 50% or 'evens' (1/1).
As an example we set up a 'coin flipping' betting event. A neutral party begins to flip the coin. With each subsequent flip there is a definite preference for heads in the betting. The bookmaker or sportsbook takes this in his stride, he has already set the odds at 10/11 (-110 US) for either outcome which takes into account his commission. He knows that this trend is fairly usual as heads is often favored in this type of event. He decides, however, to balance his books a little by reducing his odds on heads to 5/6 and increasing tails to 1/1.
Heads is now an even
shorter price and represents no value. Tails now stands at a slightly better price but still only represents the 'true odds' or likelihood of winning at 1/1 or 50% and so is not value.
The event continues and still the betting favors heads. Why? Well the 'average bettor' does not really understand 'value', he does not understand that heads might well be a bad bet or hold no value. He just enjoys betting and since 'heads' is winning - he wants to bet on heads.
The bookmaker balances his books again with a dramatic shortening of the odds for heads to 4/9 and a lengthening to 6/4 on tails.
At this point the professional bettor would step in and begin to place bets on tails. He knows that he has got value at 6/4 (+150 US), for an event where the 'true odds’ of success are 1/1.
As long as he bets at this price (6/4) or any 'value' price, the professional will win in the long run.
Naturally, it is not as easy to assess the 'true odds' in sports events because there are so many variables, however, with experience it can be done, especially if one specializes in particular sports events.
About the Author
The author has been a professional sports bettor and trader for seven years and helps advise a number of sportsbooks:
Gameday Sportsbook
SportingBet
VIP Sports Group
amongst others - all of which are leaders in the sports betting and gambling industry.
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